Let’s take a look back at some of the predictions from industry insiders and leaders from January 2021:
Chuck Kelley of Cayuga Hospitality Consultants “It will be difficult to restaff hotels with skilled labor as business ramps back up. Many of the good ones who lost their jobs will have moved on to different careers, resulting in a dire need for interim staffing, task force in key positions, and intensified staff training.”
Boy oh, boy did this prove to be true. Labor shortages extended far beyond hotels to foodservice, airlines, trucking, manufacturing, and construction. While there are a variety of factors contributing to this on the macroeconomic level, the hospitality industry faced a near-perfect storm of rapidly increasing demand and a labor pool that had been laid off and found employment elsewhere. While hiring bonuses and increased wages have had some impact, as of October, there were nearly 1.6 million open positions in the Accommodation and food services sector according to the U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2022 looks to be no different in terms of increasing demand and a highly competitive labor environment.
Euan McGlashan, CEO of Valor Hospitality Partners “Staff’s mandatory wearing of masks and gloves will be dropped by Q3 of 2021.”
Depending on the market, this was true, and then it wasn’t. As we learned more about how Covid spread and greater numbers of the population became vaccinated, some of these protective measures were dropped. Indoor mask mandates were eased as vaccination requirements increased and it was line-level employees who were left to enforce these ever-changing requirements leading to some ugly altercations. As recently as Wednesday, December 15th Southwest Airlines CEO Gary Kelly made the case to drop mask mandates for airlines arguing "I think the case is very strong that masks don't add much if anything in the air cabin environment,". Some of his colleagues disagreed and Raymond James airline industry analyst offered “It's not a big deterrent for people to take trips on planes, so it's probably a net positive for bookings at this point. This is a service business. Airlines need to make sure passengers are as comfortable as possible. Even if no one likes wearing masks, many would feel less comfortable if others are not doing so."
Scott Mayerowitz, Executive Editor of The Points Guy “Immunity passports – or some sort of proof – are probably going to be required to fly overseas. But so will COVID-19 tests.”
Proof of vaccination, PCR tests, and rapid tests was the golden ticket for international travel in 2021. Some US cities went so far as to require proof of vaccination to partake in indoor dining or attend large gatherings. As case counts spike and wane from country to country, entry requirements change from destination to destination. I won’t even pretend to know what is needed to go where, but the UNWTO and IATA have put together an interactive map to track requirements by destination, linked to here
Expedia Group’s 2021 Travel Trends Report “Cities will make a comeback.”
Expedia based the following list of cities making a comeback based on flight demand: Cancun, Orlando, Las Vegas, Miami, Denver, Honolulu, Kahului, New York, Los Angeles, Ft. Lauderdale, Seattle, Chicago, London, and Phoenix. Leisure travel did indeed drive demand to many of these markets, but without group and business travel it was going to be hard to get back to 2019 numbers. As of August, of this year, the AHLA was projecting New York City hotel business travel revenue to be down -88.4% as compared to 2019. From the list of cities above, Miami was expected to see the least decline in business travel revenue, only down -62.6%. While restaurants and museums reopened, and entertainment resumed, cities felt more alive than they had in 2020. So yes, the foundations of a comeback are there, but for cities like New York to truly “be back”, we’ll need to see office workers return and business and group travel resume.
Jan Frietag, Senior Vice President of Lodging Insights at STR “U.S. Group Demand Finally Returns”
I have always enjoyed Jan Frietag’s eternal optimism and upbeat industry outlooks. This prediction was based on business travelers getting vaccinated and getting back on the road to attend conferences and meetings. The seeds were there, but then came the variants, and travel restrictions. As of November 17th, the Global Business Travel Association was forecasting a 14% rebound in business travel expenditures from 2020 lows to $754 billion worldwide. For comparison, the total business travel expenditure in 2018 was $1.4 trillion worldwide. That said, the United States did lead the way in the recovery rebounding 27%. So, Jan wasn’t wrong, I just wish he had been more right.
What does 2022 hold? I have no idea, nor do I pretend to know. The hospitality industry has been around for thousands of years and we’re well on our way back to the highs of 2018 and 2019. The business mix may change, travel patterns may change, how and to what level service is executed my change, and forecasts and predictions will change. At the end of the day, our industry is driven by the innate human trait to discover and explore, which will never change.
Eric Amador, Customer Success Manager
